Hoboken Board of Education Unanimously Passes 10% Local Tax Levy Increase for 2020-21 School Budget

SYNOPSIS: The local tax levy for the 2020-2021 Hoboken Board of Education Budget represents a 9.95% tax increase from 2019-20 as the levy goes from $48,306,832 to $53,114,030. 

BACKGROUND 

FIGURE 1: 2020-21 Hoboken Board of Education Budget
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Last year on March 19, 2019 the Hoboken Board of Education approved a tax levy of $48,306,832 to fund the Hoboken Public Schools for the then upcoming 2019-2020 school year. This was an increase of 5.41% over the previous year. Anything over a 2% increase can be put to a public vote. The Board of Education received permission to increase the budget by more than 2% without a public vote. 

On May 7, 2020 the Hoboken Board of Education approved a tax levy of $53,114,030 for the 2020-21 school year (see Figure 1). This represents a 9.95% increase in the local levy from the 2019-2020 budget. In short, a local tax levy from $48,306,832 to $53,114,030 in one year.  Specifics are captured in the video of the meeting and the transcript that follows:  



TRANSCRIPT: May 7, 2020 - Discussion of 2020-21 Budget Increase:

Board of Education President: Dr. Johnson and Miss Good presented the details in a very clear way— the budget incorporates a two percent increase on the local tax levy to cover our state aid cut, contractual salaries, and benefits and increases to our normal operating costs. In addition, the DOE granted the district a waiver to increase the local tax levy by a seven point nine five percent to account for an additional two hundred and ninety-six K to 12 students next year (2020-21). Last week Mr. Carrion asked a good question is this the maximum that we can take even if our enrollment is above 296 students and the answer was yes for this budget cycle and at this time I think we are well above the 296 students so you know while this increase is high it's a necessity given the growing and developing Hoboken that we're living in right now and in turn you know the extraordinary increase in students enrolled within the local public school district and so I just wanted to comment on the budget...

NO PUBLIC BUDGET VOTING SINCE 2012 The Budget for the Hoboken Board of Education has not been voted on by the taxpayers of Hoboken since 2012. In that time, the tax levy under the Kids First and Kids First legacy Hoboken Board of Education members has gone from $36,479,095 (see Figure 2) to $53,114,030 or an increase of 45.6% over 9 budgets.

FIGURE 2: Hoboken Board of Education Local Tax Levy 2012-13
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The justification for the nearly 10% increase for 2020-21 seems to be based on the estimated 2020-21 enrollment for the Hoboken Public Schools. Budgets proposed in May are based on estimates of enrollment for the next school year. Generally, the May estimates and close to the Fall enrollments also known as the "October 15th" enrollment since the enrollment on that date is used statewide for reporting of enrollment for that school year. 

2020-21 ENROLLMENT ESTIMATES While no one has a crystal ball, a quick look at the last 9 years of budgets shows the relative differences between the ESTIMATED and ACTUAL enrollment from 2012 to 2020 (see Figure 3). Claims of "extraordinary growth" do not appear to be supported by data. In fact, enrollment over the past 8 years On Roll Regular Full Time enrollment in the school district (not including charters) has averaged 2352 with a standard deviation of 170 students. The 2021 enrollment projections (@296) about 75% higher than the standard deviation over 8 years. A quick look at Figure 3 shows how much the 2021 enrollment estimate (red) stands out from 8 years of data. 

FIGURE 3: Estimated vs Actual District Enrollment
Hoboken Public Schools
2012 to Fall 2020 (estimate)
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October 15 Report Enrollment and User Friendly Budgets 

2012 ESTIMATE 2162

2012 ACTUAL 2076

2013 ESTMATE 2356 

2013 ACTUAL 2349

2014 ESTIMATE 2379

2014 ACTUAL 2310

2015 ESTIMATE 2440

2015 ACTUAL 2368

2016 ESTIMATE 2425

2016 ACTUAL 2264

2017 ESTIMATE 2341

2017 ACTUAL 2351

2018 ESTIMATE 2440

2018 ACTUAL 2415 

2019 ESTIMATE 2520 

2019 ACTUAL 2686

2020 ESTIMATE 3583

Remarkably...in Figure 4 we see that the Hoboken Board of Education apparently estimates that the public schools will see an increase in ON ROLL REGULAR FULL-TIME enrollment from 2686 students (2019-20 ACTUAL) to 3583 students (Oct 15 2020 ESTIMATE). This would be an increase of 33.39% where a majority of this "growth" seems to involve the number of students "Sent to Contracted Preschool" in Figure 4. 

FIGURE 4: 2020-2021 Hoboken User Friendly Budget
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SUMMARY: The 2020-2021 Hoboken Board of Education Budget represents a 9.95% local Tax Levy increase from 2019-20. The primary justification for this extraordinary increase (Board President's words) is an anticipated 33.39% increase in enrollment unprecedented in the Hoboken Public Schools for the past quarter century. 

Let us hope the October 15, 2020 enrollment reaches or surpasses the estimates for this budget and that the school district will begin to see some evidence of academic success with the significant increase in next year's district budget. Finally, at some point, the Hoboken taxpayers may wish to have a more formal say in the school budget. 

Congratulations to the HFD’s newest battalion chief- Audra Carter
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