18 Year Longitudinal Analysis of Hoboken City Schools Clearly Shows White Enrollment Has Increased, Free and Reduced Percentages Have Decreased While Accountability Measures Continue to Underperform

Snow storm aftermath- Hoboken, NJ March, 2017 

Are the Hoboken Public Schools experiencing "white flight"? Is the percentage of poor students in the Hoboken School District really 80%? Is the socio-economic demographics of the Hoboken School District the main reason for low test scores? These are all very good questions and thankfully there is independent, NJ Department of Education data that can help us parse the rhetoric from the facts. We will look at 2 specific measures in this post. The percentage of students identified as white and the percentage of students identified as free or reduced lunch over an 18 year period so we can not only see year to year variation but also longer term trends.  We will then explore whether these socio-economic factors explain aspects of district achievement. 

First, the percentage of white students in the Hoboken Public Schools have INCREASED from 15% in 1999-2000 to 33.2 % in 2015-16 (Figure 1). That is a large increase. 

Figure 1: Percentage of Students Identified as White
Hoboken School District 1998-2016
CLICK TO ENLARGE

Second- Of course, there is variability in the income level of students from families identified as white so the next analysis should look at the percentage of students from families who qualify for "free or reduced lunch" which for a family of four is in the neighborhood of between $32,000 (free) to $43,000 (reduced). During roughly the same time period, the percentage of enrolled students qualifying for "free or reduced lunch" in the Hoboken School District has declined steadily from around 85% in 1998-99 to around 50% in 2015-16 (Figure 2). That is a pretty sizable reduction over time. 

Figure 2:Percentage of Students Identified as "Free or Reduced Lunch"
Hoboken School District 1998-2016
CLICK TO ENLARGE

Third, according to Hoboken Patch.com the Hoboken school district's high school is ranked 332 out of 371 high schools with over 33% considered "not yet meeting college expectations." Given the overall demographics and trends in the district, this is somewhat surprising. 

There is much evidence that socio-economic status (SES) has a positive impact of student achievement and standardized testing. Here is how the Hoboken School District ranked among other "like" school districts in the State of NJ on 2016 PARCC scores (districts classified as "FG" school districts). It would be safe to assume that as a school district's SES profile transitions from a high percentage of free or reduced students to less free or reduced students (from 86% to 52% in the case of Hoboken) and as the percentage of students identified by the district as white increases (from 16% to 32% in the case of Hoboken) we would hope to see a corresponding increase in such outcome measures as student achievement, high school graduation rate, violence and vandalism, and standardized testing. There have been little to no such increases in the Hoboken Public Schools since the 2009-10 school year- the year the political group known as "Kids First" and their various incarnations have had majority control of the Hoboken Board of Education and the education of the children of Hoboken. 

2016 NJPARCC COMPOSTITE MEAN SCORE- ALL “FG” School District

Data: New Jersey Department of Education

COUNTY NAME	DISTRICT NAME	DFG	MEAN SS
OCEAN	LONG BEACH ISLAND	FG	775
BERGEN	NORTHVALE BORO	FG	769
MONMOUTH	SPRING LAKE HEIGHTS BORO	FG	766
UNION	CLARK TWP	FG	762
PASSAIC	LITTLE FALLS TWP	FG	762
MONMOUTH	MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REGIONAL	FG	761
MIDDLESEX	MONROE TWP	FG	761
SUSSEX	SANDYSTON-WALPACK TWP	FG	760
PASSAIC	BLOOMINGDALE BORO	FG	759
WARREN	HOPE TWP	FG	759
HUNTERDON	HOLLAND TWP	FG	758
CAPE MAY	STONE HARBOR BORO	FG	758
BERGEN	DUMONT BORO	FG	757
BERGEN	FORT LEE BORO	FG	757
PASSAIC	NORTH HALEDON BORO	FG	757
BURLINGTON	BORDENTOWN REGIONAL	FG	756
OCEAN	POINT PLEASANT BEACH BORO	FG	756
OCEAN	POINT PLEASANT BORO	FG	756
GLOUCESTER	WOODBURY HEIGHTS BORO	FG	756
MONMOUTH	HOWELL TWP	FG	755
BERGEN	ROCHELLE PARK TWP	FG	755
MIDDLESEX	SOUTH PLAINFIELD BORO	FG	755
GLOUCESTER	MANTUA TWP	FG	754
CAMDEN	COLLINGSWOOD BORO	FG	753
MORRIS	LINCOLN PARK BORO	FG	753
MIDDLESEX	MIDDLESEX BORO	FG	753
BERGEN	NEW MILFORD BORO	FG	753
CAMDEN	GIBBSBORO BORO	FG	752
BERGEN	MAYWOOD BORO	FG	752
GLOUCESTER	SOUTH HARRISON TWP	FG	752
CAPE MAY	UPPER TWP	FG	752
BURLINGTON	HAINESPORT TWP	FG	751
SUSSEX	HARDYSTON TWP	FG	751
GLOUCESTER	LOGAN TWP	FG	751
MIDDLESEX	OLD BRIDGE TWP	FG	751
MORRIS	ROCKAWAY BORO	FG	751
SUSSEX	STILLWATER TWP	FG	751
BERGEN	BERGENFIELD BORO	FG	750
BERGEN	HASBROUCK HEIGHTS BORO	FG	750
ESSEX	NUTLEY TOWN	FG	750
ATLANTIC	PORT REPUBLIC CITY	FG	750
BURLINGTON	SPRINGFIELD TWP	FG	750
SALEM	WOODSTOWN-PILESGROVE REG	FG	750
GLOUCESTER	EAST GREENWICH TWP	FG	749
PASSAIC	WEST MILFORD TWP	FG	749
BERGEN	WOOD-RIDGE BORO	FG	749
BURLINGTON	CINNAMINSON TWP	FG	748
WARREN	KNOWLTON TWP	FG	748
MORRIS	RIVERDALE BORO	FG	748
MORRIS	BOONTON TOWN	FG	747
PASSAIC	POMPTON LAKES BORO	FG	747
SUSSEX	VERNON TWP	FG	747
WARREN	BLAIRSTOWN TWP	FG	746
SUSSEX	FRANKFORD TWP	FG	745
MIDDLESEX	MILLTOWN BORO	FG	745
MORRIS	MINE HILL TWP	FG	745
BURLINGTON	BURLINGTON TWP	FG	744
MIDDLESEX	DUNELLEN BORO	FG	744
MIDDLESEX	NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP	FG	744
MONMOUTH	EATONTOWN BORO	FG	743
CAMDEN	HADDON TWP	FG	743
MERCER	HAMILTON TWP	FG	743
GLOUCESTER	WASHINGTON TWP	FG	743
MONMOUTH	WEST LONG BRANCH BORO	FG	743
HUDSON	HOBOKEN CITY	FG	742
CAMDEN	BARRINGTON BORO	FG	741
BURLINGTON	LUMBERTON TWP	FG	739
HUNTERDON	KINGWOOD TWP	FG	738
MONMOUTH	OCEAN TWP	FG	737
BURLINGTON	DELRAN TWP	FG	736
BURLINGTON	EASTAMPTON TWP	FG	736
WARREN	MANSFIELD TWP	FG	736
GLOUCESTER	PITMAN BORO	FG	736
SUSSEX	HOPATCONG	FG	735
SOMERSET	SOMERVILLE BORO	FG	732
SUSSEX	OGDENSBURG BORO	FG	730
SUSSEX	ANDOVER REG	FG	728

Summary: Over the last two decades in the Hoboken School District, the percentage of students identified as white has increased dramatically. Concurrently and somewhat correspondingly, the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced lunch has decreased significantly. Nonetheless, mandated New Jersey state accountability assessments place the district's high school in the lower percentages of all public and charter school districts in the state and among the lowest within its district factor group.