Saturday, January 2, 2016

An Analysis of the Hoboken Schools During the Kids First Era: 2009-10 to 2013-14 NJ Violence, Vandalism and Substance Abuse in the Schools Reports

"Hoboken" - Charles Pratt, 1963
At the December 8, 2015 Hoboken Board of Education meeting, a Board trustee- responding to a presentation concerning Violence and Vandalism at the meeting- asked the following question to a district administrator: "So how would you address someone who would say the school (district) is violent?" The response by the administrator was certainly fair and adequate given the spontaneous nature of the question. A regular reader of this blog also inquired as to whether the Hoboken School District is a "violent school district." Given the interest in this question from trustees, citizens, and taxpayers, perhaps some further discussion is warranted. The following analysis is not intended to answer the question specifically (is the district violent) but to provide data and analysis that may provide some additional information for those interested in reaching their own conclusions. The final decision is left to the reader.  This post is also structured in such a way that people who might want to answer this question for their own New Jersey school district may have a roadmap to follow in order to obtain the necessary data needed to reach their own conclusions about their own district. -Dr. Petrosino 
Earlier last school year (2014-15), the New Jersey Department of Education released its annual Violence, Vandalism and Substance Abuse in the Schools Report for 2013-2014. The report documents self-reported incidents of violence in each district. While school districts in cities such as Newark and Camden led the way in total number of incidents, there were many districts that had a higher ratio of incidents of violence. In order to equalize large, medium, and small districts it was decided to take a look at the report in the context of how many students attend school in each of the districts, and construct a list of the districts with the highest number of incidents of violence per 100 students. This makes it easier to compare districts with each other since the incidents of violence, vandalism, weapons, bullying etc takes into account the total number of students in that district. If this wasn't done, than the districts with the largest enrollments would likely have the highest total number of incidents and (perhaps inappropriately) be classified as "violent" districts. Conversely, districts with relatively average enrollments but with relatively high number of total incidents for the number of students they serve would go relatively unrecognized. We will use the Hoboken City School District in Hoboken, New Jersey as our example but using this methodology, you can compare your own NJ school district too.

First we must establish whether the question "Is my child's school district a Violent School District?" a subjective or objective question? Subjectivity is based on personal opinions, interpretations, points of view, emotions and judgement. It is often considered ill-suited for scenarios like news reporting or decision making in business, politics, or education. Objectivity is fact-based, measurable, and observable. The purpose of this specific exercise is to approach the question of whether the Hoboken School District is a violent district as objectively as possible. Therefore, all the data used in this analysis is taken from the New Jersey Department of Education, supplied by every school district in the State of New Jersey under the title of Violence, Vandalism and Substance Abuse in the Schools Report  and can be found directly by clicking HERE.


INTRODUCTION
This exercise will have six major components. First, we will compare the 2013-14 Violence and Vandalism data between the Hoboken School District and school districts within its home county of Hudson County. Second, again using the same Violence and Vandalism data, we will compare the Hoboken School District with various NJ school districts across the state. Third, we will compare the Hoboken School District with other district in the State of New Jersey with comparable student enrollment (more than 1900 students) using the same 2013-14 data. Fourth, we will look at the previous year's data (2012-13) analyzed and reported by Patch.com in 2014 and compare the Hoboken School District with all school districts in the State of New Jersey. Fifth, we will conduct a longitudinal analysis of Hoboken vs. Hudson County violence and vandalism averages and NJ Statewide violence and vandalism averages during the school years of 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2012-13. Finally, we will summarize the findings of our analysis.


I. Hoboken and County Comparison- The first comparison we will do in our worked out example will be the Hoboken School District and all the schools within its county. Hoboken is in Hudson County, NJ.  Hudson County is a county with 12 different cities and a county high school. For this and all the following examples, you can view the data (Enrollment, Number of Incidents of Reported Violence, Number of Incidents of Reported Vandalism, as well as Weapons, Substance Abuse, Bullying, and Total Number of All Reported Incidents) below or do directly to the NJDOE website (CLICK HERE). You will also see a column labeled "Total per 100"- this is calculated by the following formula:
(Total Incidents/District Enrollment )*100 = Number of Incidents per 100 Students
We can see that the Hoboken Public Schools have the 2nd Highest rate of total incidents in Hudson County outpacing such cities as East Newark, Union City, Jersey City, West New York, and Harrison (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: 2013-14 NJDOE Violence and Vandalism - Hudson County
(click to enlarge)













II. Hoboken and Various NJ District Comparisons- The next comparison we will do in our worked out example will be the Hoboken School District and various other school districts in New Jersey. Here we see Hoboken with a higher rate of violence per 100 students than in school districts such as Atlantic City, Patterson, Camden, Elizabeth, Asbury Park, Newark, and Hoboken's Hudson County neighbor, Jersey City (see Figure 2). An examination of the data indicates the rate of violence, vandalism and substance abuse per 100 students in Hoboken is 200% more than the school districts of Jersey City and Newark; about 133% more than the school districts of Elizabeth and Asbury Park and 50% higher than the Camden Public Schools.

What might be somewhat surprising to some is the City of Hoboken's relative wealth and prosperity compared to some of these other districts although there is some disparity between the City of Hoboken's demographics and the demographics of the public schools. For various reasons and for a fairly long time, the city's public schools have not been able to attract the full demographic diversity of the city.
The Census Bureau's 2006-2010 American Community Survey showed that (in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars) median household income was $101,782 (with a margin of error of +/- $3,219) and the median family income was $121,614 (+/- $18,466).
Figure 2: 2013-14 NJDOE Violence and Vandalism- Various NJ Cities
(click to enlarge)  










"An examination of the data indicates the rate of violence, vandalism and substance abuse per 100 students in Hoboken is 200% more than in the school districts of Jersey City and Newark; about 133% more than the school districts of Elizabeth and Asbury Park and 50% higher than in the Camden Public Schools."
Click to Enlarge














III. Hoboken Compared with Districts of Comparable Enrollment -There are approximately 675 districts in the NJDOE database. Remember, as some people are quick to point out, each charter school is its own school district. In these 675 school districts are approximately 1,370,516 students. This means the average school district in New Jersey has about 2,030 students (median district enrollment is 927; standard deviation = 3157).  When we look at the approximately 213 New Jersey school districts with at least 1900 students enrolled we find that the Hoboken Public Schools has the 18th highest rate of incidents of violence, vandalism and substance abuse per 100 students. This places the Hoboken Schools in the top 10 percent of all NJ school districts with over 1900 enrolled students in terms of the rate of incidents of violence, vandalism and substance abuse per 100 students.

Figure 3: 2013-14 NJDOE Violence and Vandalism- Enrollment Greater 1900
(click to enlarge) 



















Does all this mean that the Hoboken School District is a violent school district? Well, that is somewhat of a subjective question and certainly not the intent of this exercise. But when we look at the objective, self reported data, what we can say is that the Hoboken School District has the 2nd highest rate of violence and vandalism per 100 students in its county; it has a higher rate of violence and vandalism per 100 students than Atlantic City, Patterson, Camden, Elizabeth, Asbury Park, Newark, and Jersey City; and finally, we know that the Hoboken School District has a rate of violence and vandalism per 100 students higher than 91.5% of all school districts in New Jersey with student enrollment over 1900 students. Does that mean Hoboken is a violent school district? This is for others to decide.

IV. Hoboken Compared with All of New Jersey School Districts in 2012-2013 -Was 2013-14 simply a bad year? That is a reasonable and thoughtful question. An independent analysis was done by journalists in 2014 looking at all schools districts in New Jersey. Specifically, in 2014 Patch.com reported that the Hoboken School District was the 9th most violent school district in the State of New Jersey. That designation was based on data from the 2012-2013 Violence, Vandalism, and Substance Abuse in the Schools Report.

PATCH.com's 2014 ranking:
Ranking) District, County (# of students, Incidents of Violence, Ratio)

State of New Jersey (1,369,554; 7895; .005)

1) Wildwood City Cape May County (852, 24, .0282)
2) Lakewood Township, Ocean County (5186, 145, .0280)
3) Willingboro Township, Burlington County (3952, 108, .0273)
4) Camden County Vocational (2158, 55, .0255)
5) High Point Regional, Sussex County (1005, 25, .0249)
6) Palmyra Borough, Burlington County (965, 23, .0238)
7) Florence Township, Burlington County (1593, 37, .0232)
8) Burlington County Vocational (2100, 48, .0229)
9) Hoboken, Hudson County (1706, 36, .0211)

V. Hoboken Compared with Hudson County and NJ State Incidents per 100 Students from 2009-10 to 2012-13 Academic School Years -But maybe the past 2 years have been unusual years in Hoboken. That is certainly possible. So, what happens when we look at the previous years data? Well, probably best for others to decide but its pretty clear that the rates of self reported violence and vandalism data in Hoboken outpaced those in Hudson County and the State of New Jersey by a fair margin from the 2009-10 school year (the year a political group known as "Kids First" took control of the Hoboken School District) to the 2012-13 school year (see Figure 4).

Figure 4: Longitudinal Violence and Vandalism Rates (click to enlarge)

An examination of the data (Figure 4) indicates that:

 1) In 2009-10 the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 383% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 343% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students. 
2) In 2010-11 the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 395% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 321% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students.
3) In 2011-12 the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 220% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 110% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students.
4) In 2012-13 the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 320% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 160% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students.

VI. Hoboken Compared with Hudson County and NJ State Incidents per 100 Students for the 2013-14 Academic School Year 

In 2013-14 the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 188% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 92.35% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students. 


VI. Overall Summary- Is the Hoboken School District is a violent school district? Well, that is somewhat of a subjective question and certainly not the intent of this exercise. But when we look at the objective, self reported data, what we can say without any debate is that
a) 2013-14 data indicates that the Hoboken School District has the 2nd highest rate of violence and vandalism per 100 students in its county;
b) 2013-14 data indicates that the Hoboken School District has a higher rate of violence and vandalism per 100 students than Atlantic City, Patterson, Camden, Elizabeth, Asbury Park, Newark, and Jersey City; and
c) the most recent data indicates that the Hoboken School District has a rate of violence and vandalism per 100 students higher than 91.5% of all school districts in New Jersey with student enrollment over 1900 students;
d) recent data reported by Patch.com indicates that the Hoboken School District was ranked the 9th most violent district in the State of New Jersey;
e) data from 2012-13 indicates that the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 320% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 160% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students;
f) data from 2011-12 indicates the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 220% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 110% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students;
g) data from 2010-11 indicates that the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 395% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 321% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students; and finally 
h) data from 2009-10 indicates the rate of violence, vandalism, and substance abuse per 100 students in the Hoboken School District was 383% higher than the Hudson County average rate of incidents per 100 students and 343% higher than the State of New Jersey average rate of incidents per 100 students.

To reiterate, ALL the data reported here is self reported by every district including Hoboken as per law by the New Jersey Department of Education.  When asking the question or whether your child's or the Hoboken Public Schools are violent-- it is probably best to draw arguments from the best objective data available. The NJ Violence, Vandalism and Substance Abuse in the Schools Reports represents the best objective data available to answer such questions. Whether the Hoboken school district is a violent district is a complex question. But one must understand why objectivity is more reliable than subjective personal testaments, political endorsements or assurances,  and/or anecdotes from well meaning people. Ultimately it is up to individual parents, taxpayers, and policy makers to weigh the objective and subjective data. This blog takes no position on the issue but rather makes an attempt to present the objective data in as easy and comprehensible fashion as possible. 

 note: some common retorts to this data in the past have been "we are the only school district reporting honestly" or "other school districts fudge their data"--- it should be noted that there are no known pending or settled cases with the NJDOE concerning the purposeful misreporting of Violence and Vandalism Data. 




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