Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Further Analysis of the 2014 Hoboken BOE Election - By Ward Analysis and Additive Value

Initial analysis on the 2014 Hoboken Board of Education election was previously discussed on this blog. Further analysis of data from the Hoboken BOE election was recently completed. This analysis was conducted by ward but not by district within ward. Eight candidates competed for three, three-year spots on the Hoboken Board of Education. The candidates ran under three slates: Parents for Change; Parents for Progress; and Parents for Progress and Education for All Children. 

In order to look at the election results a little closer, a number of variables were created (see spreadsheet below): 

LYNNDiff = The average vote of Murray and Waiters minus the vote of Lynn Danzker  (for example for the First Ward (208+207/2)  minus the vote of Danzker (161) = 46.5
GRAYDiff = The average vote for Angley and Stromwall minus the vote for Gray 
Lynn+Gray = LYNNDiff + GRAYDiff 
PETERDiff = The difference between Peter Biancamano and Francis Rhodes-Kearns 

Danzker and Gray had a total of 495 LESS votes than their slate mates. Biancamano had 468 MORE votes than his slate mate. Clearly, there is not a one to one correspondence and this analysis does not take into account those people who voted for only 1 or 2 candidates but it gives a little sense of Biancamano having an additive difference (picking up votes) rather than any other data driven explanation.


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